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  • This is the longer, full version of the report: Numbers out of tune: An Examination of the Vote in Harmonised July 2013 Elections.

    The central concern of the report is an attempt to fathom the source of the remarkable number of votes garnered by President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU PF party in the harmonised July 2013 election when compared with the polls of 2008. The report investigates this issue by using the published results in the presidential elections from 2008 and 2013 and voter registration statistics, the latter derived both from the voters roll and figures officially announced in the press.

    The conclusion reached is that the additional 1.03 million gained by Mugabe votes cannot be explained by: a) a large increase in registered voters; b) a large swing in allegiance toward Mugabe and away from Morgan Tsvangirai  the formers main opponent in the presidential race; or c) both of the above.

    Findings made do not allow any definitive determination to be made in respect of these alternatives, and it is concluded that there is a crucial need for more comprehensive research in order to conclusively accept or reject the outcome of the 2013 Harmonised elections.

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    Numbers out of Tune Full Report

    (2013 Elections)
  • Summary

    Following the 2013 elections, RAU commenced a preliminary audit of the poll, seeking to fathom, as a central concern, the source of the over 1.03 million more votes Mugabe garnered in 2013 when compared with the 2008 poll. This is an increase of over 95% for ZANU PF, while Tsvangirais tally remained virtually unchanged.

    The report is based on an analysis of published results in the presidential elections from 2008 and 2013 and voter registration statistics; the latter derived both from the voters roll and figures officially announced in the press.

    Key Findings & Conclusions:

    Conclusions from the study indicate that the additional 1.03 million votes gained by Mugabe cannot be explained by:

    • An increase in the number of registered voters; With the Registrar Generals office reporting that about 780 000 new voters were added to the voters roll for 2013, even if all of those newly registered had voted for Mugabe (unlikely), the source of about 250 000 thousand votes remains unexplained.
    • That there was a swing in voter allegiance away from Tsvangirai to Mugabe If Tsvangirais tally had been reduced by some switching allegiance to Mugabe, the deficit in votes would have had to be filled by some of the newly registered voters voting for Tsvangirai to keep his tally roughly the same. This then reduces the pool of new voters available to explain Mugabes vote, leaving the tally of unexplained votes unchanged. There were about 90 000 votes which had been cast for outside candidates in 2008 looking for a home in 2013. But even if these had been cast for Mugabe in 2013, 160 000 votes are still unexplained.

    This then leaves two, and only two possible explanations, for the minimum of 160 000 unexplained votes.

    • a) That at least 160 000 people who were registered as voters in 2008, but who did not vote in that election, decided to vote in 2013; or
    • b) That Mugabes unexplained 160 000 ballots consists of numerous fraudulent votes (through multiple voting or ghost polling stations);

    It must borne in mind that the 160 000 is a very conservative estimate. It does not take into account the possibility that some of the over 300 000 voters turned away may have been legitimate voters who were then unable to cast a ballot; it assumes that none of the nearly 290 000 people removed from the roll as deceased ahead of the 2013 poll had voted in 2008; it assumes that no voter from 2008 or new voter withheld a vote in 2013 and that none of the spoiled ballots were from new voters or those that voted in 2013.

    RAU does not choose between the possibilities, but suggests that the matter certainly raises a large enough question mark over the poll to warrant further investigation, which should be welcomed by all parties.

    NOTE: THIS IS AN ABRIDGED VERSION OF A LONGER REPORT TO FOLLOW SHORTLY

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    Numbers out of tune - Abridged Version

    (2013 Elections)
  • This is the preliminary report on the SiMuka! Zimbabwe, Woman, Get Counted! Register to Vote! Campaign run by The Women’s Trust (TWT). The campaign was a buildup of a previous campaign run in 2007 and 2008, Women Can Do It!, and the current campaign was aimed at encouraging women to participate in the 2013 elections by registering as voters and voting. In order to understand the effectiveness of the SiMuka! Campaign, TWT and the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) undertook a two-stage investigation of the process. A select (non-random) sample of women interviewed before (PRE) and after (POST) the elections using a questionnaire. A total of 739 questionnaires were returned for the PRE group, of which 674 (91%) were accepted as complete. For the POST group, a total of 993 questionnaires were returned, of which 901 (91%) were accepted as complete. A matched sample was not obtained, and hence the study reports on a comparison of two independent samples derived from 12 Districts in Zimbabwe. The data were entered on a purpose-built database and then analysed, mostly for simple frequencies. This report is preliminary, covering the main general findings, and a more detailed report will be issued in due course.
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    Women & 2013 Elections

    (2013 Elections)

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